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Für Nick sind US-Staatsanleihen in diesem Jahr das Investment-Vehikel der Wahl

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Aus dem Haus Saxobank kommen immer wieder interessante Research-Beiträge. Den aktuellen möchte ich unseren Lesern nicht vorenthalten.

Wenn man demnach Nick Beecroft, Senior FX Consultant bei der Saxo Bank, Glauben schenken darf, sind US-Staatsanleihen in diesem Jahr das Investment-Vehikel der Wahl. Die Jungs und Mädels aus der Presseabteilung haben seine englische Originalversion sehr schön zusammengefasst:

– Portugal, Spanien und Italien müssen  ähnlich wie Griechenland harte Einschnitte vornehmen
-  Der Überlebenskampf des Euros, der es an politischer und fiskalischer Einheit der Mitgliedsländer fehlt
-  Ähnlichkeiten zu den EWS-Krisen der 80er und 90er Jahre
– Abgesehen vor der Rettung des relativ kleinen Griechenlands hätten EU und IWF kaum die Kraft, geschweige denn den Willen, die restlichen der PIIGS-Länder zu retten, deren bessere Fundamentaldaten sind angesichts der Spekulation von geringer Relevanz
– US-Staatsanleihen werden von der Situation profitieren und eine Rallye erleben.

Die “Longversion” ist aber in ihrer Sachlichkeit lohnenswert zu lesen, ich hoffe die Saxobank ist mir dafür nicht böse, letztlich ist es ja auch eine Art “Verbraucherschutz” solche Kommentare zu veröffentlichen…

US Treasuries will be the investment vehicle of choice for this year

By Nick Beecroft, Senior Foreign Exchange Consultant, Saxo Bank

Greece’s joint IMF/EU Eur 110bn loan will be enough to avoid a near term liquidity crisis and to tide her over for the next 2 years, assuming she feels she can accept the incredibly onerous conditions attached, and the EU governments can pass the required legislation, (N.B. this implies approx. Eur 20bn from Germany), and the famous German Professors are unsuccessful with their objections at the Constitutional Court-all of which will almost certainly occur.

Then the Eurozone-wide pain really starts, as Portugal, Spain and Italy will have to implement similarly brutal fiscal cuts, either immediately, by implication from the Greek experience, or because the market quickly turns on them.

I believe there is a very clear and vivid analogy to be made here with the European Monetary System, (EMS), crises of the 1980’s and ‘90’s, in that case we saw the attempted, and ultimately unsuccessful, defence of the indefensible; fixed foreign exchange rate bands. Here we are witnessing the death throes of a monetary union, rendered indefensible because it is not also a political and fiscal union.

In the market’s eyes, the old EMS exchange rate ‘fixes’ were indefensible simply because it was obvious that national governments would ultimately not have enough foreign exchange, (FX), reserves to fight off an attack from the trillion dollar FX market. Fast forward to the present Euro debt crisis, and the markets are smelling the same blood-they know that, while it was really no problem at all to save the tiny Greek economy, the EU, (meaning the rich northern economies) and the IMF for that matter, simply do not have the ammunition, (let alone the political will), necessary to save Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain. In the same way that the vast majority of FX traders at banks and hedge funds and pension fund managers had no grasp whatsoever of the theoretical appropriateness of the EMS currency pegs based on academic analysis, such as Purchasing Power Parity, the slightly better debt fundamentals in Portugal, Spain and Italy, compared to Greece, will become irrelevant in the face of the market’s self-reinforcing conviction that the Euro experiment is doomed.

When fear and greed are working together, in sufficient measure, they become unstoppable natural forces.

Because it will be obvious that the IMF/EU cannot afford to bail-out all the PIIGS, and because the European banks hold large amounts of Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian sovereign debt, concerns over their health will emerge; Libor/OIS spreads have already widened out, and soon interbank lending will freeze up again, and the banks will begin to suffer deposit withdrawals, in a manner which will be horribly reminiscent of the post-Lehman crisis in Q4 2008.

Of course, this malaise will once again spread rapidly throughout the globe.

Even in the absence of this full, rather frightening chain of events, US Treasuries will enjoy a rally, (albeit of a somewhat less extreme nature), because the US is already sliding towards a H2 2010 deflation scare; the FED is certainly worried about this, as evidenced by the minutes of the 16th March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, (FOMC).

By the fourth quarter of this year, the markets will be gripped by a deflation scare, similar to the one which so pre-occupied them in 2002/2004.

In August and September of 2003, core PCE inflation reached a trough of 1.4%, year-on-year, (YoY), while the core CPI bottomed at a 40-year low of 1.09% a few months later. Moving forward to the present day, in March 2010, core PCE inflation stood at 1.3%, YoY, and March 2010 core CPI inflation fell to 1.18%.

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On top of all of the above, the fiscal remedies that Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, will be forced to endure, (and also the UK, by the way), are, by their very nature, extremely deflationary.
Central bank policies in US, UK and Eurozone will have to stay extremely accommodative, as a result of some or all of the above, i.e. bank credit concerns, extreme fiscal tightness, (which will lead to renewed economic weakness), and deflation worries.

As per Q4 2008, the main beneficiaries from all of the above will be the US$ and US Treasuries and, while we may not revisit the yield-lows of the 10-yr bond we saw then of 2.05%, I think it is perfectly possible that this storm takes us from the present yield of 3.55% to 2.5%.

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