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Sind in 2009 ca. 80% Rendite möglich…?

…um dann dennoch kein Geld verdient zu haben? Soviel wären laut einem Artikel auf Gibbons‘ Tradingblog notwendig, um überhaupt die Verluste aus 2008 und der Anfangszeit in 2009 wieder wettzumachen und auf Einstand zu bringen.

Note that the S&P 500 cash (SPX) was down 38.4% in 2008 and is down 5.88% so far in 2009- a total haircut of 44.28%. To get this loss back, you have to see a 79.4% return on the balance to get back to even. You are likely not going to see a 79.4% return in a lifetime for buy and holders.

Des Weiteren gibt er in einem anderen Artikel eine „Prognose“ für alle diejenigen, die in diesen Zeiten immer noch an der Anlagestrategie „buy-and-hold“ festhalten…

Dear subscribers, I have provided you with as close to the Holy Grail of trading as there is, and still some of you are buyers and holders of stocks during one of the most devastating bear markets in history. In addition, the very fact that some of you are long stocks tells me the market has much lower to go- lower than anyone thinks possible. Once you have lost all of you money (and you will), we are likely near a long term bottom in the market.

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